Randers FC 1–0 Lyngby: Result & Stats | Superliga

Randers FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lyngby

2/23/2024

Superliga · Round 19Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Randers FC48%

×Draw25%

Lyngby27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.13

Randers FC

1.61

Lyngby

1.13

Randers FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 81 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.31

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Randers FC

1.40

Lyngby

0.95

allows per match

Randers FC

1.31

Lyngby

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Randers FC+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

73%

Randers FC or Lyngby

75%

Draw or Lyngby

52%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

25%

Lyngby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

80%

Randers FC 2+ goals

48%

Randers FC 3+ goals

22%

Lyngby 1+ goals

68%

Lyngby 2+ goals

31%

Lyngby 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

64%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.31 · 132 matches

Lyngby away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.40 + Lyngby defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lyngby attack 0.95 + Randers FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Randers FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Lyngby scores more

27%

Randers FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff