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Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland — Superliga 2018

Randers FC
Randers FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
10/28/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 13Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Randers FC42%
×Draw25%
FC Nordsjaelland33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers FC
1.54
FC Nordsjaelland
1.32

Randers FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

creates per match

Randers FC
1.40
FC Nordsjaelland
1.33

allows per match

Randers FC
1.31
FC Nordsjaelland
1.68

finishing

Randers FC+0.00on par
FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw
67%
Randers FC or FC Nordsjaelland
75%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
58%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+
21%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals
79%
Randers FC 2+ goals
45%
Randers FC 3+ goals
20%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
73%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
38%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)
57%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.31 · 132 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.40 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.33 + Randers FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Randers FC scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
33%

Randers FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Randers FC 4–0 FC Nordsjaelland

Randers FC beat FC Nordsjaelland 4-0 in Superliga on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Cepheus Park Randers in Randers.