Randers FC 3–1 Esbjerg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Randers FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Esbjerg

V. Hammershoy-Mistrati 90+5', 79', 66'

D. Anyembe 30'

7/8/2020

Superliga · Relegation Round - 6Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Randers FC47%

×Draw26%

Esbjerg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchEsbjerg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.08

Randers FC

1.49

Esbjerg

1.08

Randers FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 36 away

1.37

creates per match

0.86

1.30

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Randers FC

1.37

Esbjerg

0.86

allows per match

Randers FC

1.30

Esbjerg

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Randers FC+0.00on par

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Esbjerg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

73%

Randers FC or Esbjerg

74%

Draw or Esbjerg

53%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

23%

Esbjerg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

77%

Randers FC 2+ goals

44%

Randers FC 3+ goals

19%

Esbjerg 1+ goals

66%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

29%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

63%

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 135 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.37 + Esbjerg defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Esbjerg attack 0.86 + Randers FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Randers FC scores more

47%

level

26%

Esbjerg scores more

27%

Randers FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Vito Hammershøj-Mistrati

Randers FC · M

8.7

Match Events

28'

K. Conboy

30'

D. Anyembe↳ P. Egelund

35'

T. Klysner

46'

A. Romer← A. Romer

53'

D. Anyembe

56'

T. Kehinde← T. Kehinde

66'

V. Hammershoy-Mistrati↳ A. Kamara

69'

D. Anyembe← L. Parunashvili

76'

M. Dauda← N. Rojkjaer

79'

V. Hammershoy-Mistrati↳ E. Riis

86'

V. Hammershoy-Mistrati

86'

R. Austin← V. Tranberg

86'

P. Egelund← P. Soiri

87'

J. Sorensen

87'

A. Kamara← S. Graves Jensen

90+5'

V. Hammershoy-Mistrati↳ J. Lauridsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersEsbjerg

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots15

4Corners1

16Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target5

2Off Target7

2Blocked3

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

353Total Passes464

246Accurate Passes350

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2