Rana 2–1 Strindheim: Result & Stats

Rana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Strindheim

K. Rade 85' (pen), 28' (pen)

A. Nytoft 25'

10/8/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 23Nye Sagbakken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rana40%

×Draw20%

Strindheim40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RanaExpected goals in this matchStrindheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

2.21

Rana

2.23

Strindheim

2.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

2.92

creates per match

2.88

1.54

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rana

2.92

Strindheim

2.88

allows per match

Rana

1.54

Strindheim

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rana+0.00on par

Strindheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rana ↓

Strindheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Rana or draw

60%

Rana or Strindheim

80%

Draw or Strindheim

60%

Winning margin

Rana wins by 2+

23%

Strindheim wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rana 1+ goals

89%

Rana 2+ goals

65%

Rana 3+ goals

38%

Strindheim 1+ goals

89%

Strindheim 2+ goals

65%

Strindheim 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Rana (draw refunded)

50%

Strindheim (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rana at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Strindheim away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rana attack 2.92 + Strindheim defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.23

Strindheim attack 2.88 + Rana defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rana scores more

40%

level

20%

Strindheim scores more

40%

Rana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Nytoft

28'

K. RadePenalty

85'

K. RadePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff