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Rana vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Rana
Rana
CANC
15:00
Skeid II
Skeid II
10/31/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rana45%
×Draw20%
Skeid II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rana
2.35
Skeid II
2.08

Rana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rana
2.33
Skeid II
1.84

allows per match

Rana
2.33
Skeid II
2.37

finishing

Rana+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rana ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Rana or draw
65%
Rana or Skeid II
80%
Draw or Skeid II
55%

Winning margin

Rana wins by 2+
26%
Skeid II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rana 1+ goals
90%
Rana 2+ goals
68%
Rana 3+ goals
41%
Skeid II 1+ goals
87%
Skeid II 2+ goals
61%
Skeid II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rana (draw refunded)
56%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rana at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rana attack 2.33 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.35

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Rana defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rana scores more
45%
level
20%
Skeid II scores more
35%

Rana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rana face Skeid II (3. Division - Girone 6)

3. Division - Girone 6 returns with Rana hosting Skeid II. Match starts October 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.