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Rana vs Kjelsås — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Rana
Rana
Preview
10:00
Kjelsås
Kjelsås
7/26/20262. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 13Sagbakken Stadion
37%
Kjelsås
model favours
36%27%37%

Rana have scored in 13 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rana36%
×Draw27%
Kjelsås37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rana
1.25
Kjelsås
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rana
1.17
Kjelsås
1.56

allows per match

Rana
1.00
Kjelsås
1.34

finishing

Rana+0.00on par
Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rana ↓

Kjelsås →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rana or draw
63%
Rana or Kjelsås
73%
Draw or Kjelsås
64%

Winning margin

Rana wins by 2+
16%
Kjelsås wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rana 1+ goals
71%
Rana 2+ goals
36%
Rana 3+ goals
13%
Kjelsås 1+ goals
72%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
37%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rana (draw refunded)
49%
Kjelsås (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rana at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rana attack 1.17 + Kjelsås defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kjelsås attack 1.56 + Rana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rana scores more
36%
level
27%
Kjelsås scores more
37%

Kjelsås at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 85% of Rana’s matches
  • 77% of Rana’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Rana win just 29% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rana
WDWLL
Kjelsås
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rana face Kjelsås (2. Division - Group 2)

2. Division - Group 2 returns with Rana hosting Kjelsås. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rana host Kjelsås at Sagbakken Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.