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Rampla Juniors vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
11/6/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rampla Juniors39%
×Draw30%
Uruguay Montevideo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.13
Uruguay Montevideo
0.97

Rampla Juniors creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 71 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.18
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
0.96
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
69%
Rampla Juniors or Uruguay Montevideo
70%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
61%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
16%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
68%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
31%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
11%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
62%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
25%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
56%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.18 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Rampla Juniors defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
39%
level
30%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
31%

Rampla Juniors at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rampla Juniors 4–1 Uruguay Montevideo

Rampla Juniors beat Uruguay Montevideo 4-1 in Segunda División on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.