Rampla Juniors 1–2 SUD America: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SUD America

S. Pallares 62'

A. Barán 90+3'

G. Triunfo 36'

1/30/2021

Segunda División · Promotion Play-offs - FinalEstadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rampla Juniors43%

×Draw28%

SUD America29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.98

Rampla Juniors

1.26

SUD America

0.98

Rampla Juniors creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 70 away

1.23

creates per match

0.96

1.01

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

SUD America

0.96

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.01

SUD America

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

71%

Rampla Juniors or SUD America

72%

Draw or SUD America

57%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

19%

SUD America wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

72%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

36%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

13%

SUD America 1+ goals

62%

SUD America 2+ goals

26%

SUD America 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

60%

SUD America (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

SUD America attack 0.96 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

43%

level

28%

SUD America scores more

29%

Rampla Juniors at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

G. Triunfo

46'

D. Martiñones← N. Silva

56'

62'

63'

64'

70'

M. Camarda← J. Ramírez

70'

M. Cantera← M. Toma

78'

H. Sequeira← L. Maldonado

80'

F. Yantorno← I. Panzariello

90+6'

90+3'

A. Barán

Rampla

SUD

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Benia

46'▲D. Martiñones←▼N. Silva

56'▲C. Paiva←▼P. Dantaz

63'▲P. Fagúndez←▼G. Díaz

78'▲H. Sequeira←▼L. Maldonado

Rampla Juniors substitutes

MartiñonesPaivaFagúndezSequeiraRosellóFaustCastro

Manager: M. Viera

64'▲A. Barán←▼P. Olivera

70'▲M. Camarda←▼J. Ramírez

70'▲M. Cantera←▼M. Toma

80'▲F. Yantorno←▼I. Panzariello

SUD America substitutes

BaránCamardaCanteraYantornoLópezMéndezMartínezPriorePerdomoPerdomo