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Rampla Juniors vs Bella Vista — Segunda División 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bella Vista
Bella Vista
11/26/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rampla Juniors48%
×Draw27%
Bella Vista24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.40
Bella Vista
0.91

Rampla Juniors creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.18
Bella Vista
0.85

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
0.96
Bella Vista
1.63

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Bella Vista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
76%
Rampla Juniors or Bella Vista
73%
Draw or Bella Vista
52%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
23%
Bella Vista wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
41%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
17%
Bella Vista 1+ goals
60%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
23%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
66%
Bella Vista (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.18 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Rampla Juniors defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
48%
level
27%
Bella Vista scores more
24%

Rampla Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Bella Vista

Rampla Juniors beat Bella Vista 2-0 in Segunda División on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.