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Rampla Juniors vs Atenas — Segunda División 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atenas
Atenas
L. Rinaldi 4'
A. Da Rocha 81'
D. Vera 44' (pen)
7/27/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rampla Juniors40%
×Draw29%
Atenas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.22
Atenas
1.03

Rampla Juniors creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 102 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.23
Atenas
1.05

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
1.01
Atenas
1.21

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Atenas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Atenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
69%
Rampla Juniors or Atenas
71%
Draw or Atenas
60%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
18%
Atenas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
70%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
34%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
12%
Atenas 1+ goals
64%
Atenas 2+ goals
28%
Atenas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
57%
Atenas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Atenas away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + Atenas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atenas attack 1.05 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
40%
level
29%
Atenas scores more
31%

Rampla Juniors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Rinaldi
44'
D. VeraPenalty
81'
A. Da Rocha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rampla Juniors 1–2 Atenas

Atenas beat Rampla Juniors 2-1 in Segunda División on July 27, 2025.

Goals: L. Rinaldi (4'), D. Vera (44' pen), A. Da Rocha (81').

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.