Rampla Juniors 0–1 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albion FC

F. Sosa 79'

5/25/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rampla Juniors38%

×Draw29%

Albion FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

Rampla Juniors

1.17

Albion FC

1.06

Rampla Juniors creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 94 away

1.23

creates per match

1.10

1.01

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Albion FC

1.10

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.01

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

67%

Rampla Juniors or Albion FC

71%

Draw or Albion FC

62%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

16%

Albion FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

69%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

33%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

11%

Albion FC 1+ goals

65%

Albion FC 2+ goals

29%

Albion FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

54%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.11 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Albion FC attack 1.10 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

38%

level

29%

Albion FC scores more

33%

Rampla Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

F. Sosa← M. Ayres

60'

L. Pais← V. Amoroso

69'

L. Batista← M. Pólvera

76'

J. Barboza← J. Moreira

76'

S. Díaz← H. Vergara

77'

O. Perdomo← T. Moschión

77'

P. González← C. Airala

79'

F. Sosa

85'

Y. García← L. Arzamendia

85'

S. Ramírez← F. Puente

Rampla

Albion

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Somoza

69'▲L. Batista←▼M. Pólvera

76'▲J. Barboza←▼J. Moreira

76'▲S. Díaz←▼H. Vergara

85'▲Y. García←▼L. Arzamendia

Rampla Juniors substitutes

BatistaBarbozaDíazGarcíaVilaTriunfoMuñozVeraRodríguezCappi

Manager: J. Boghossian

60'▲F. Sosa←▼M. Ayres

60'▲L. Pais←▼V. Amoroso

77'▲O. Perdomo←▼T. Moschión

77'▲P. González←▼C. Airala

85'▲S. Ramírez←▼F. Puente

Albion FC substitutes

SosaPaisPerdomoGonzálezRamírezFreitasIbáñezAlegreBurruzoJaume