Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rambrouch vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — Cup 2020

Rambrouch
Rambrouch
FT
1 – 3
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97
10/2/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain synthétique Centre Scolaire Koetschette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rambrouch8%
×Draw13%
UN Kaerjeng 9779%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rambrouch
0.84
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.92

UN Kaerjeng 97 creates 248% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rambrouch
0.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.63

allows per match

Rambrouch
3.20
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.88

finishing

Rambrouch+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rambrouch ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rambrouch or draw
21%
Rambrouch or UN Kaerjeng 97
87%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
92%

Winning margin

Rambrouch wins by 2+
2%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Rambrouch 1+ goals
57%
Rambrouch 2+ goals
21%
Rambrouch 3+ goals
5%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
94%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
78%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Rambrouch (draw refunded)
9%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rambrouch at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rambrouch attack 0.80 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 2.63 + Rambrouch defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Rambrouch scores more
8%
level
13%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
79%

UN Kaerjeng 97 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "UN Kaerjeng 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rambrouch vs UN Kaerjeng 97

UN Kaerjeng 97 beat Rambrouch 3-1 in Cup on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain synthétique Centre Scolaire Koetschette in Rambrouch.