Rambrouch 1–6 Jeunesse Junglinster: Result & Stats

Rambrouch

1 – 6

Jeunesse Junglinster

9/10/2023

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain synthétique Centre Scolaire Koetschette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rambrouch16%

×Draw16%

Jeunesse Junglinster69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RambrouchExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Junglinster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.98

Rambrouch

1.40

Jeunesse Junglinster

2.98

Jeunesse Junglinster creates 113% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

0.80

creates per match

2.75

3.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rambrouch

0.80

Jeunesse Junglinster

2.75

allows per match

Rambrouch

3.20

Jeunesse Junglinster

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rambrouch+0.00on par

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rambrouch ↓

Jeunesse Junglinster →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Rambrouch or draw

31%

Rambrouch or Jeunesse Junglinster

84%

Draw or Jeunesse Junglinster

84%

Winning margin

Rambrouch wins by 2+

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Rambrouch 1+ goals

75%

Rambrouch 2+ goals

41%

Rambrouch 3+ goals

17%

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals

95%

Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals

79%

Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Rambrouch (draw refunded)

19%

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rambrouch at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Jeunesse Junglinster away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rambrouch attack 0.80 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 2.75 + Rambrouch defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rambrouch scores more

16%

level

16%

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more

69%

Jeunesse Junglinster at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jeunesse Junglinster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff