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Rakytovce vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
1 – 1
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
9/20/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 8Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce79%
×Draw13%
Žarnovica8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.91
Žarnovica
0.84

Rakytovce creates 246% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
92%
Rakytovce or Žarnovica
87%
Draw or Žarnovica
21%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
59%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
94%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
78%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
54%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
57%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
21%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
91%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.91

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Rakytovce scores more
79%
level
13%
Žarnovica scores more
8%

Rakytovce at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rakytovce vs Žarnovica

Rakytovce and Žarnovica drew 1-1 in 3. liga - Center on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.