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Rakytovce vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
0 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
9/5/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 6Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce71%
×Draw17%
Tatran Krásno12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.36
Tatran Krásno
0.84

Rakytovce creates 181% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
88%
Rakytovce or Tatran Krásno
83%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
29%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
48%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
90%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
68%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
41%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
57%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
21%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
86%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.36

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rakytovce scores more
71%
level
17%
Tatran Krásno scores more
12%

Rakytovce at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rakytovce 0–0 Tatran Krásno

Rakytovce and Tatran Krásno drew 0-0 in 3. liga - Center on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.