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Rakytovce vs Novohrad Lučenec — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
3 – 2
Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
8/22/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 4Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce66%
×Draw18%
Novohrad Lučenec16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.35
Novohrad Lučenec
1.05

Rakytovce creates 124% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Novohrad Lučenec
1.47

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Novohrad Lučenec
2.03

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
84%
Rakytovce or Novohrad Lučenec
82%
Draw or Novohrad Lučenec
34%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
43%
Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
90%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
68%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
41%
Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
65%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
28%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
81%
Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.35

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rakytovce scores more
66%
level
18%
Novohrad Lučenec scores more
16%

Rakytovce at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rakytovce vs Novohrad Lučenec

Rakytovce beat Novohrad Lučenec 3-2 in 3. liga - Center on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.