Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rakytovce vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
4 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
10/4/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 10Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rakytovce80%
×Draw13%
Lokomotíva Zvolen7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.84
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.76

Rakytovce creates 274% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.88

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Lokomotíva Zvolen
3.00

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
93%
Rakytovce or Lokomotíva Zvolen
87%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
20%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
59%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
94%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
77%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
53%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
53%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
18%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
91%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.84

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.88 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Rakytovce scores more
80%
level
13%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
7%

Rakytovce at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rakytovce 4–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Rakytovce beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.