Rakytovce 1–0 Kováčová: Result & Stats

Rakytovce

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kováčová

5/7/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 22Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce65%

×Draw20%

Kováčová15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RakytovceExpected goals in this matchKováčová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.89

Rakytovce

2.08

Kováčová

0.89

Rakytovce creates 134% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

2.68

creates per match

1.13

0.64

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rakytovce

2.68

Kováčová

1.13

allows per match

Rakytovce

0.64

Kováčová

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par

Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Kováčová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw

85%

Rakytovce or Kováčová

80%

Draw or Kováčová

35%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+

40%

Kováčová wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals

87%

Rakytovce 2+ goals

61%

Rakytovce 3+ goals

34%

Kováčová 1+ goals

59%

Kováčová 2+ goals

22%

Kováčová 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)

81%

Kováčová (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rakytovce scores more

65%

level

20%

Kováčová scores more

15%

Rakytovce at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff