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Rakytovce vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
3/27/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 16Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce60%
×Draw21%
Fomat Martin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.03
Fomat Martin
1.05

Rakytovce creates 93% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Fomat Martin
1.46

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Fomat Martin
1.37

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
81%
Rakytovce or Fomat Martin
79%
Draw or Fomat Martin
40%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
36%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
87%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
60%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
33%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
65%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
28%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
76%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Fomat Martin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.03

Fomat Martin attack 1.46 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rakytovce scores more
60%
level
21%
Fomat Martin scores more
19%

Rakytovce at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rakytovce vs Fomat Martin

Rakytovce beat Fomat Martin 3-2 in 3. liga - Center on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.