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Rakytovce vs Dolný Kubín — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
6/18/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 28Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce61%
×Draw19%
Dolný Kubín20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.38
Dolný Kubín
1.30

Rakytovce creates 83% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Dolný Kubín
1.96

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Dolný Kubín
2.07

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
80%
Rakytovce or Dolný Kubín
81%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
39%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
39%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
91%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
68%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
42%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
73%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
37%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
75%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.38

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rakytovce scores more
61%
level
19%
Dolný Kubín scores more
20%

Rakytovce at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rakytovce 2–1 Dolný Kubín

Rakytovce beat Dolný Kubín 2-1 in 3. liga - Center on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.