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Rakvere Tarvas vs Legion — Esiliiga A 2026

Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Legion
Legion
10/19/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 33Rakvere kunstmuru (Rakvere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rakvere Tarvas30%
×Draw21%
Legion49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakvere Tarvas
1.58
Legion
2.08

Legion creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Rakvere Tarvas
1.11
Legion
1.95

allows per match

Rakvere Tarvas
2.22
Legion
2.05

finishing

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakvere Tarvas ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rakvere Tarvas or draw
51%
Rakvere Tarvas or Legion
79%
Draw or Legion
70%

Winning margin

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
14%
Legion wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
79%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
47%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
21%
Legion 1+ goals
87%
Legion 2+ goals
61%
Legion 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
38%
Legion (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakvere Tarvas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Legion away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.11 + Legion defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Legion attack 1.95 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rakvere Tarvas scores more
30%
level
21%
Legion scores more
49%

Legion at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rakvere Tarvas vs Legion

Legion beat Rakvere Tarvas 4-0 in Esiliiga A on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Rakvere kunstmuru (Rakvere).