Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Žilina: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Žilina

L. Diaby-Fadiga 73'

J. Brunes 58' (pen)

O. Repka 48'

7/24/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMiejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raków Częstochowa66%

×Draw20%

Žilina14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchŽilina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.88

Raków Częstochowa

2.14

Žilina

0.88

Raków Częstochowa creates 143% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.85

creates per match

1.29

0.46

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.85

Žilina

1.29

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

0.46

Žilina

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Žilina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Žilina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

86%

Raków Częstochowa or Žilina

80%

Draw or Žilina

34%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

42%

Žilina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

88%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

63%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

36%

Žilina 1+ goals

59%

Žilina 2+ goals

22%

Žilina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

82%

Žilina (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Žilina away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.85 + Žilina defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.14

Žilina attack 1.29 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

66%

level

20%

Žilina scores more

14%

Raków Częstochowa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

O. Repka

51'

Ján Minárik

58'

J. BrunesPenalty

63'

63'

68'

69'

70'

70'

70'

L. Diaby-Fadiga← M. Ameyaw

73'

P. Ilko← D. Duris

73'

73'

73'

75'

81'

81'

85'

T. Paliscak← S. Kopasek

Raków3-4-3

Žilina3-4-2-1

6

▼

Adang

29

▼

Duris

23

▼

Fasko

20

Bari

11

▼

Gidi

66

Kacer

19

▼

28

25

17

30

1

4

24

2

26

▼

Otieno

6

⚽

Repka

23

▼

Struski

7

Tudor

9

▼

Makuch

18

⚽

▼

Brunes

19

▼

Ameyaw

Manager: Marek Papszun

70'▲L. Rocha←▼J. Brunes

70'▲J. Diaz←▼P. Makuch

70'▲L. Diaby-Fadiga←▼M. Ameyaw

75'▲Adriano←▼E. Otieno

81'▲I. Seck←▼K. Struski

Raków Częstochowa substitutes

39Madrzyk48Zych11Adriano17Rocha21Burkiewicz28Diaz66Konstantopoulos80Diaby-Fadiga97Seck

Manager: Pavol Staňo

73'▲P. Ilko←▼D. Duris

73'▲S. Datko←▼X. Adang

73'▲M. Roginic←▼M. Fasko

81'▲A. Kapralik←▼S. Gidi

85'▲T. Paliscak←▼S. Kopasek

Žilina substitutes

1Badzgon22Jokl4Kelembet7Kosa10Kapralik16Ilko21Hranica24Datko27Sanusi33Paliscak34Prokop95Roginic

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Žilina

Raków Częstochowa beat Žilina 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 24, 2025.

Goals: O. Repka (48'), J. Brunes (58' pen), L. Diaby-Fadiga (73').

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie in Czestochowa.

Raków Częstochowa vs Žilina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Žilina