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Raków Częstochowa vs Universitatea Craiova — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
10/2/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Raków Częstochowa61%
×Draw25%
Universitatea Craiova14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.59
Universitatea Craiova
0.60

Raków Częstochowa creates 165% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.75
Universitatea Craiova
0.78

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
0.42
Universitatea Craiova
1.44

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
86%
Raków Częstochowa or Universitatea Craiova
75%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
39%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
34%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
47%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
21%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
45%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
12%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
82%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.75 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Universitatea Craiova attack 0.78 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
61%
level
25%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
14%

Raków Częstochowa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Universitatea Craiova

Raków Częstochowa beat Universitatea Craiova 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.