Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Raków Częstochowa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stomil Olsztyn

9/1/2018

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Raków (Częstochowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Raków Częstochowa56%

×Draw27%

Stomil Olsztyn17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchStomil Olsztyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.65

Raków Częstochowa

1.44

Stomil Olsztyn

0.65

Raków Częstochowa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.53

creates per match

0.88

0.41

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.53

Stomil Olsztyn

0.88

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

0.41

Stomil Olsztyn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

83%

Raków Częstochowa or Stomil Olsztyn

73%

Draw or Stomil Olsztyn

44%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

29%

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

76%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

42%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

18%

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

48%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

14%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

77%

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.53 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

56%

level

27%

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

17%

Raków Częstochowa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff