Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

J. Kubicki 2'

2/13/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 17Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Raków Częstochowa48%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.25

Raków Częstochowa

1.72

Lechia Gdansk

1.25

Raków Częstochowa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

1.48

1.03

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.62

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.03

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa-0.05on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

72%

Raków Częstochowa or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

52%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

26%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

82%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

51%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

25%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

71%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

36%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

63%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.62 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

48%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

28%

Raków Częstochowa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Kubicki

28'

Ivi

45'

Joseph Ceesay

46'

A. Niewulis← D. Mikołajewski

52'

52'

54'

59'

67'

75'

77'

D. Szelągowski← Ivi López

78'

B. Lederman← M. Poletanović

78'

P. Malinowski← P. Kun

81'

Conrado← K. Saief

87'

W. Długosz← F. Tudor

88'

Jarosław Jach

90+3'

M. Żukowski← M. Gajos

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RakówLechia

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots6

6Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots6

7On Target4

3Off Target2

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls16

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk

Lechia Gdansk beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 13, 2021.

Goals: J. Kubicki (2').

Raków Częstochowa controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.

Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk