Lechia Gdansk 1–2 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Raków Częstochowa

T. Bobcek 10' (pen)

J. Brunes 90'

O. Repka 20'

4/25/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk35%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.59

Lechia Gdansk

1.45

Raków Częstochowa

1.59

Raków Częstochowa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.59

creates per match

1.66

1.53

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.59

Raków Częstochowa

1.66

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

Raków Częstochowa

1.30

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Raków Częstochowa-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

59%

Lechia Gdansk or Raków Częstochowa

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

65%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

16%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

42%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

18%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

80%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

47%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

46%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.66 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

35%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

41%

Raków Częstochowa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

O. Zych

Raków Częstochowa · G

7.9

Match Events

10'

T. BobcekPenalty

20'

O. Repka

44'

Kacper Sezonienko

46'

T. Pienko← I. Brusberg

53'

Camilo Mena

56'

Fran Tudor

66'

Stratos Svarnas

72'

Adriano← F. Tudor

72'

I. Lopez← P. Makuch

83'

L. Rocha← J. C. Silva

83'

O. Abraham← M. Bulat

86'

B. Kludka← T. Wojtowicz

90'

J. Brunes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaRaków

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots16

1.77Expected Goals (xG)1.56

3Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots16

6On Target4

5Off Target4

0Blocked8

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

360Total Passes393

276Accurate Passes317

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.67Goals Prevented0.67

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0