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Raków Częstochowa vs Arda Kardzhali — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
8/21/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundzondacrypto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Raków Częstochowa70%
×Draw22%
Arda Kardzhali8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
0.38

Raków Częstochowa creates 350% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.75
Arda Kardzhali
0.33

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
0.42
Arda Kardzhali
1.67

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
92%
Raków Częstochowa or Arda Kardzhali
78%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
30%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
42%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
82%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
51%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
24%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
32%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
6%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
90%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.75 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.33 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
70%
level
22%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
8%

Raków Częstochowa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Arda Kardzhali

Raków Częstochowa beat Arda Kardzhali 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at zondacrypto Arena in Częstochowa.