Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Zagłębie Lubin U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin U19
Zagłębie Lubin U19
5/13/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1936%
×Draw24%
Zagłębie Lubin U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.50
Zagłębie Lubin U19
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 53 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.52
Zagłębie Lubin U19
1.79

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.35
Zagłębie Lubin U19
1.47

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U19 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw
60%
Raków Częstochowa U19 or Zagłębie Lubin U19
76%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U19
64%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
17%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
78%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
44%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
19%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals
79%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals
46%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.52 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 1.79 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
36%
level
24%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more
40%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Raków Częstochowa U19 2–0 Zagłębie Lubin U19

Raków Częstochowa U19 beat Zagłębie Lubin U19 2-0 in Central Youth League on May 13, 2023.