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Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Escola Varsovia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Escola Varsovia U19
Escola Varsovia U19
4/29/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1944%
×Draw23%
Escola Varsovia U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.73
Escola Varsovia U19
1.44

Raków Częstochowa U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.52
Escola Varsovia U19
1.53

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.35
Escola Varsovia U19
1.95

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par
Escola Varsovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U19 ↓

Escola Varsovia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw
68%
Raków Częstochowa U19 or Escola Varsovia U19
77%
Draw or Escola Varsovia U19
56%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
23%
Escola Varsovia U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
82%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
52%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
25%
Escola Varsovia U19 1+ goals
76%
Escola Varsovia U19 2+ goals
42%
Escola Varsovia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Escola Varsovia U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Escola Varsovia U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.52 + Escola Varsovia U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Escola Varsovia U19 attack 1.53 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Escola Varsovia U19 scores more
32%

Raków Częstochowa U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Escola Varsovia U19

Escola Varsovia U19 beat Raków Częstochowa U19 2-0 in Central Youth League on April 29, 2023.