Raków Częstochowa U19 2–0 Arka Gdynia U19

Raków Częstochowa U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arka Gdynia U19

3/18/2023

Central Youth League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1946%

×Draw23%

Arka Gdynia U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa U19Expected goals in this matchArka Gdynia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.41

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.78

Arka Gdynia U19

1.41

Raków Częstochowa U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

1.52

creates per match

1.46

1.35

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.52

Arka Gdynia U19

1.46

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.35

Arka Gdynia U19

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U19 ↓

Arka Gdynia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw

69%

Raków Częstochowa U19 or Arka Gdynia U19

77%

Draw or Arka Gdynia U19

54%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+

25%

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals

26%

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals

76%

Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals

41%

Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Arka Gdynia U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.52 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.78

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 1.46 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more

46%

level

23%

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more

31%

Raków Częstochowa U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff