Raków Częstochowa U18 4–0 Miedź Legnica U18

Raków Częstochowa U18

FT

4 – 0

Miedź Legnica U18

10/9/2022

Central Youth League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1881%

×Draw12%

Miedź Legnica U187%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa U18Expected goals in this matchMiedź Legnica U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.76

Raków Częstochowa U18

3.00

Miedź Legnica U18

0.76

Raków Częstochowa U18 creates 295% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

0.43

1.09

allows per match

3.86

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U18

2.14

Miedź Legnica U18

0.43

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U18

1.09

Miedź Legnica U18

3.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par

Miedź Legnica U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U18 ↓

Miedź Legnica U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U18 or draw

93%

Raków Częstochowa U18 or Miedź Legnica U18

88%

Draw or Miedź Legnica U18

19%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+

62%

Miedź Legnica U18 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals

95%

Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals

79%

Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals

56%

Miedź Legnica U18 1+ goals

53%

Miedź Legnica U18 2+ goals

18%

Miedź Legnica U18 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)

92%

Miedź Legnica U18 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Miedź Legnica U18 away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 2.14 + Miedź Legnica U18 defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.00

Miedź Legnica U18 attack 0.43 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more

81%

level

12%

Miedź Legnica U18 scores more

7%

Raków Częstochowa U18 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff