Raków Częstochowa U18 2–1 Górnik Zabrze U18

Raków Częstochowa U18

FT

2 – 1

Górnik Zabrze U18

9/11/2021

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1848%

×Draw23%

Górnik Zabrze U1828%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa U18Expected goals in this matchGórnik Zabrze U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.31

Raków Częstochowa U18

1.77

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.31

Raków Częstochowa U18 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

2.14

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U18

2.14

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.54

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U18

1.09

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par

Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U18 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U18 or draw

72%

Raków Częstochowa U18 or Górnik Zabrze U18

77%

Draw or Górnik Zabrze U18

52%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+

26%

Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals

26%

Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals

73%

Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals

38%

Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)

63%

Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Górnik Zabrze U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 2.14 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.54 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more

48%

level

23%

Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more

28%

Raków Częstochowa U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff