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Raków Częstochowa II vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
FT
0 – 1
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
9/30/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II45%
×Draw25%
Warta Gorzów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa II
1.60
Warta Gorzów
1.26

Raków Częstochowa II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.62
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.24
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw
70%
Raków Częstochowa II or Warta Gorzów
75%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
55%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
23%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
47%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
22%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
72%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
36%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
60%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more
45%
level
25%
Warta Gorzów scores more
30%

Raków Częstochowa II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa II vs Warta Gorzów

Warta Gorzów beat Raków Częstochowa II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków in Częstochowa.