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Raków Częstochowa II vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
FT
4 – 2
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
6/3/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II47%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa II
1.73
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.31

Raków Częstochowa II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.62
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.24
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw
71%
Raków Częstochowa II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
53%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
25%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
82%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
52%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
25%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
73%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
38%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
62%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more
47%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
29%

Raków Częstochowa II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Raków Częstochowa II 4–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Raków Częstochowa II beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 4-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków in Częstochowa.