Rajasthan United 0–4 Minerva Punjab: Result & Stats

Rajasthan United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Minerva Punjab

H. Ralte 90+1'

Juan Mera 76'

L. Majcen 41'

Y. Tripathi 16' (OG)

3/4/2023

I-League · Round 21Dr. Ambedkar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rajasthan United35%

×Draw26%

Minerva Punjab39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rajasthan UnitedExpected goals in this matchMinerva Punjab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.39

Rajasthan United

1.30

Minerva Punjab

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

1.45

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Rajasthan United

1.33

Minerva Punjab

1.45

allows per match

Rajasthan United

1.33

Minerva Punjab

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rajasthan United ↓

Minerva Punjab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rajasthan United or draw

61%

Rajasthan United or Minerva Punjab

74%

Draw or Minerva Punjab

65%

Winning margin

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

15%

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

73%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

37%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

14%

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

75%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

40%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

47%

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rajasthan United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rajasthan United attack 1.33 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Minerva Punjab attack 1.45 + Rajasthan United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rajasthan United scores more

35%

level

26%

Minerva Punjab scores more

39%

Minerva Punjab at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

N. Gurung

16'

Y. TripathiOwn goal

41'

L. Majcen↳ A. Chhetri

62'

B. Amangeldiev

72'

S. Kharpan← A. Dzhumashev

76'

Juan Mera↳ C. Gyeltshen

77'

J. Mera

85'

S. Meitei

85'

A. Ignjatović← Juan Mera

85'

M. Singh← A. Chhetri

85'

J. Nellar← C. Gyeltshen

85'

D. Lalhlimpuia← N. Meitei

87'

P. Mahata← Y. Tripathi

88'

A. Pradhan← F. Lallawmawma

90+1'

90+4'

90+4'

90+1'

Rajasthan

Minerva

16

Chemjong

5

⚽

Ralte

39

Salah

74

▼

Meitei

6

A

▼

Chhetri

12

Lhungdim

8

▼

Lallawmaw

99

⚽

Majcen

11

⚽

▼

Mera

77

A

▼

30

1

5

17

9

2

▼

21

23

8

15

🥅

▼

Tripathi

7

▼

Dzhumashe

14

Anthony

Manager: P. Kundu

72'▲S. Kharpan←▼A. Dzhumashev

87'▲P. Mahata←▼Y. Tripathi

90+4'▲K. Beyong←▼N. Gurung

Rajasthan United substitutes

75Kharpan12Mahata4Beyong24Basu30Horam29Fanai13Sardar20Gupta6Renthlei

Manager: S. Vergetis

85'▲A. Ignjatović←▼Juan Mera

85'▲M. Singh←▼A. Chhetri

85'▲J. Nellar←▼C. Gyeltshen

85'▲D. Lalhlimpuia←▼N. Meitei

88'▲A. Pradhan←▼F. Lallawmawma

Minerva Punjab substitutes

55Ignjatović10Singh20Nellar19Lalhlimpuia23Pradhan7Singh2Singh1Kumar26Devrani50Singh