Raja Casablanca 3–3 Youssoufia Berrechid

Raja Casablanca

FT

3 – 3

Youssoufia Berrechid

2/17/2019

Botola Pro · Round 18Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Raja Casablanca58%

×Draw24%

Youssoufia Berrechid18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja CasablancaExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.79

Raja Casablanca

1.65

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.79

Raja Casablanca creates 109% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

1.57

creates per match

0.95

0.64

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Raja Casablanca

1.57

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Raja Casablanca

0.64

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw

82%

Raja Casablanca or Youssoufia Berrechid

76%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

42%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

32%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

81%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

49%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

23%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

55%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

19%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

76%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more

58%

level

24%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

18%

Raja Casablanca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff