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Raja Casablanca vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
12/19/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Raja Casablanca52%
×Draw27%
UTS Rabat22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.47
UTS Rabat
0.85

Raja Casablanca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
78%
Raja Casablanca or UTS Rabat
73%
Draw or UTS Rabat
48%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
26%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
77%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
43%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
18%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
57%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
21%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
70%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
52%
level
27%
UTS Rabat scores more
22%

Raja Casablanca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs UTS Rabat

Raja Casablanca beat UTS Rabat 2-1 in Botola Pro on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.