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Raja Casablanca vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
3/3/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Raja Casablanca52%
×Draw27%
Olympique Safi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.42
Olympique Safi
0.80

Raja Casablanca creates 77% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 117 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
Olympique Safi
0.97

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
Olympique Safi
1.27

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
79%
Raja Casablanca or Olympique Safi
73%
Draw or Olympique Safi
48%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
26%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
76%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
41%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
17%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
55%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
19%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
71%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.27 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + Olympique Safi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Olympique Safi attack 0.97 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
52%
level
27%
Olympique Safi scores more
21%

Raja Casablanca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs Olympique Safi

Raja Casablanca beat Olympique Safi 1-0 in Botola Pro on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.