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Olympique Safi vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
9/29/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 4Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Olympique Safi32%
×Draw29%
Raja Casablanca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.02
Raja Casablanca
1.14

Raja Casablanca creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
1.09
Raja Casablanca
1.33

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.95
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
62%
Olympique Safi or Raja Casablanca
71%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
68%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
12%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
68%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
32%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
46%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 1.09 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Raja Casablanca attack 1.33 + Olympique Safi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
32%
level
29%
Raja Casablanca scores more
38%

Raja Casablanca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Safi vs Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca beat Olympique Safi 3-2 in Botola Pro on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.