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Raja Casablanca vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
2/5/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Raja Casablanca54%
×Draw27%
Olympique Khouribga19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.45
Olympique Khouribga
0.73

Raja Casablanca creates 99% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 60 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
81%
Raja Casablanca or Olympique Khouribga
73%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
46%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
28%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
77%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
42%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
18%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
52%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
17%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
74%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
54%
level
27%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
19%

Raja Casablanca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 2–1 Olympique Khouribga

Raja Casablanca beat Olympique Khouribga 2-1 in Botola Pro on February 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.