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Olympique Khouribga vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
2/15/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 17Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga31%
×Draw28%
Raja Casablanca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.08
Raja Casablanca
1.28

Raja Casablanca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 121 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.23
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.22
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
59%
Olympique Khouribga or Raja Casablanca
72%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
69%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
12%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
29%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
72%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
37%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
43%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
31%
level
28%
Raja Casablanca scores more
41%

Raja Casablanca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Raja Casablanca

Olympique Khouribga and Raja Casablanca drew 2-2 in Botola Pro on February 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.