Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raja Casablanca vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
1/17/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Raja Casablanca52%
×Draw27%
Mouloudia Oujda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.43
Mouloudia Oujda
0.79

Raja Casablanca creates 81% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
Mouloudia Oujda
0.93

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
Mouloudia Oujda
1.28

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
79%
Raja Casablanca or Mouloudia Oujda
73%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
48%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
26%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
76%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
42%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
17%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
55%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
19%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
72%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
52%
level
27%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
21%

Raja Casablanca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs Mouloudia Oujda

Raja Casablanca beat Mouloudia Oujda 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.