Raja Casablanca 2–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Raja Casablanca

FT

2 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

11/3/2016

Botola Pro · Round 8Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Raja Casablanca57%

×Draw26%

Kawkab Marrakech17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja CasablancaExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.69

Raja Casablanca

1.51

Kawkab Marrakech

0.69

Raja Casablanca creates 119% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 37 away

1.59

creates per match

0.76

0.62

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Raja Casablanca

1.59

Kawkab Marrakech

0.76

allows per match

Raja Casablanca

0.62

Kawkab Marrakech

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw

83%

Raja Casablanca or Kawkab Marrakech

74%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

43%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

30%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

78%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

44%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

19%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

50%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

15%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

77%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.62 · 118 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.59 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.76 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more

57%

level

26%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

17%

Raja Casablanca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff