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Kawkab Marrakech vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
0 – 3
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
2/25/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 18Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech33%
×Draw28%
Raja Casablanca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.09
Raja Casablanca
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 118 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.25
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.03
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
62%
Kawkab Marrakech or Raja Casablanca
72%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
67%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
13%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
66%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
30%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
10%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
70%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
33%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
47%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.25 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
33%
level
28%
Raja Casablanca scores more
38%

Raja Casablanca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Kawkab Marrakech 0–3 Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca beat Kawkab Marrakech 3-0 in Botola Pro on February 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).