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Raja Casablanca vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
A. Ennaffati 73'
M. Boulacsout 45+5'
A. Maamouri 15'
R. Majji 75'
Y. Arbidi 39'
5/8/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Raja Casablanca55%
×Draw25%
Difaa EL Jadida19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.58
Difaa EL Jadida
0.82

Raja Casablanca creates 93% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 106 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.61
Difaa EL Jadida
1.04

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.61
Difaa EL Jadida
1.55

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
81%
Raja Casablanca or Difaa EL Jadida
75%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
45%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
29%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
79%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
47%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
21%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
56%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
20%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
74%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.61 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.04 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
55%
level
25%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
19%

Raja Casablanca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Maamouri
39'
Y. Arbidi
45+5'
M. Boulacsout
64'
Mohamed Boulacsout
64'
H. Ferdaoussi← A. Baadi
71'
R. Majji← Y. Arbidi
72'
P. Sakho← A. Maamouri
73'
A. Ennaffati
75'
R. Majji
83'
B. Arrassi← M. Boulacsout

Statistics

RajaDifaa
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 3–2 Difaa EL Jadida

Raja Casablanca beat Difaa EL Jadida 3-2 in Botola Pro on May 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Maamouri (15'), Y. Arbidi (39'), M. Boulacsout (45+5'), A. Ennaffati (73'), R. Majji (75').

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.