Raja Casablanca 1–1 Al-Nasr: Result & Stats

Raja Casablanca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Nasr

9/28/2019

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raja Casablanca70%

×Draw24%

Al-Nasr7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja CasablancaExpected goals in this matchAl-Nasr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.30

Raja Casablanca

1.57

Al-Nasr

0.30

Raja Casablanca creates 423% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

1.64

creates per match

0.25

0.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Raja Casablanca

1.64

Al-Nasr

0.25

allows per match

Raja Casablanca

0.36

Al-Nasr

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Al-Nasr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw

93%

Raja Casablanca or Al-Nasr

76%

Draw or Al-Nasr

30%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

39%

Al-Nasr wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

79%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

46%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

21%

Al-Nasr 1+ goals

26%

Al-Nasr 2+ goals

4%

Al-Nasr 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

91%

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Al-Nasr away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + Al-Nasr defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al-Nasr attack 0.25 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more

70%

level

24%

Al-Nasr scores more

7%

Raja Casablanca at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff