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Raja Beni Mellal vs Tihad Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
3/6/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 22Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal43%
×Draw30%
Tihad Casablanca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.15
Tihad Casablanca
0.85

Raja Beni Mellal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 46 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.13
Tihad Casablanca
0.87

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.84
Tihad Casablanca
1.17

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Tihad Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
73%
Raja Beni Mellal or Tihad Casablanca
70%
Draw or Tihad Casablanca
57%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
18%
Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
68%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
32%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
11%
Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
57%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
21%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
61%
Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
43%
level
30%
Tihad Casablanca scores more
27%

Raja Beni Mellal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Tihad Casablanca

Raja Beni Mellal beat Tihad Casablanca 1-0 in Botola 2 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal in Beni Mellal.