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Raja Beni Mellal vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
4/20/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 23Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal42%
×Draw29%
Racing de Casablanca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.20
Racing de Casablanca
0.93

Raja Beni Mellal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.13
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.84
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
72%
Raja Beni Mellal or Racing de Casablanca
71%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
58%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
18%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
70%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
34%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
12%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
61%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
24%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
60%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
42%
level
29%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
28%

Raja Beni Mellal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Racing de Casablanca

Raja Beni Mellal and Racing de Casablanca drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal in Beni Mellal.