Raja Beni Mellal vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Raja Beni Mellal22%
FUS Rabat49%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FUS Rabat creates 68% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 119 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Raja Beni Mellal ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches
FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 119 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.57 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79
FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
FUS Rabat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Wydad AC
Raja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL Jadida
Renaissance BerkaneFUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique Khouribga
Kawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Raja Beni Mellal host FUS Rabat on Saturday, 2 November 2019 at 14:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Raja Beni Mellal 2 – 2 FUS Rabat
Raja Beni Mellal and FUS Rabat drew 2-2 in Botola Pro on November 2, 2019.
Goals: N. Jaadi (4' pen), Y. Belammari (33'), A. Benjelloun (61'), E. El Bassil (86').
The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.