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Raja Beni Mellal vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra — Botola 2 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
6/15/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 30Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal44%
×Draw30%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.17
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.81

Raja Beni Mellal creates 44% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.13
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.79

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.84
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.22

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
75%
Raja Beni Mellal or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
70%
Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
56%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
19%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
69%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
33%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
11%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
56%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
19%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
63%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
44%
level
30%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
25%

Raja Beni Mellal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Raja Beni Mellal 3–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Raja Beni Mellal beat Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3-1 in Botola 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal in Beni Mellal.